Spoiler Alert...
It may be to early to infer much based on one race weekend in WSBK, but it is looking like another championship romp is underway for Ducati. Not taking anything away from Bautista; he is a great rider and takes full advantage of his light weight- as has Ducati, which changed ergo's on the bike this year to let him get more of his weight over the front wheel. Watching the Ducati's blast past the other bikes on the straights tells me the horsepower/RPM advantage conferred by Dorna on the Ducati remains intact. Four of the first five bikes were Ducati's, with the two factory machines crossing the line long before the only non-Duc in the first five (Locatelli riding his Yamaha superbly) appeared on the final straight. (Kawasaki's miserable weekend was due to more than the Duc domination, but that's another story.) In addition, the Ducati is now sporting 6" long wings on its fairing, as some of their Moto-GP tech gets sent downstream. Makes sense- you can't use that big power advantage if the bike is trying to wheelie all the time.
Meanwhile, the Kawi, Yamaha and Honda are now looking pretty equal. But this is starting to look like the 1990's, when Ducati's huge rules advantage let them own the sport for most of the decade. Only when Honda gave up trying to beat 1000cc twins with a 750 four, and took two titles with the RC51, did Dorna finally level the displacement playing field. But I guess they got sick of Ducati not winning again, so here we are once more with rules that favor the Italian marque, and a bike that has been clearly faster for the past several years. However, I think and hope they will only let this period of Duc domination continue for another year or two, and then the power levels might get equalized again. We will see.
Of more concern to me is the worry that the Superbike product marketplace has shriveled up so much that only Ducati will be motivated to keep advancing the technology (and cost) of their Superbike, as the others might decide it is just not worth it. If the endgame of WSBK is selling bikes, and the sportbike market is disappearing, how do the makers justify the cost to shareholders? The scenario that may develop might look even more like GP racing in the 1960's than WSBK racing in the 1990's...
Back in the 1960's, there was only one bike manufacturer that was serious about road racing, MV Augusta. They hired the best rider they could find in Agostini, and together they won 15 world championships. They won so often and so easily- sometimes by several MINUTES- that Ago some seasons would not even attend the last races of the year, having sewed up the title with room to spare. (And given how dangerous the tracks were, who could blame him for not racing if he did not have to?)
So I ask myself, are Honda and Kawi and Yamaha going to build new-generation Superbikes, with a V-4 and downforce aero, if that is what is needed to match the Ducati? All to try to capture sales that are not there? If not, the gap between the desmo's and the rest will continue to widen and Ducati will continue to win WSBK titles by default, just as MV did all those years ago. And I think that is kind of likely- especially if the other makers conclude that even if they put in the resources, Dorna will keep tilting the rules to favor one firm.
I have a similar worry for MotoGP. There, Ducati has earned their leadership position by spending tons on R&D, fielding eight bikes, and leading the MC world in using AI and F-1 style aerodynamics. Will the others make the same committment to catch up? Or was Suzuki just the first firm to throw in the towel? I hope not, but time will tell.
It may be to early to infer much based on one race weekend in WSBK, but it is looking like another championship romp is underway for Ducati. Not taking anything away from Bautista; he is a great rider and takes full advantage of his light weight- as has Ducati, which changed ergo's on the bike this year to let him get more of his weight over the front wheel. Watching the Ducati's blast past the other bikes on the straights tells me the horsepower/RPM advantage conferred by Dorna on the Ducati remains intact. Four of the first five bikes were Ducati's, with the two factory machines crossing the line long before the only non-Duc in the first five (Locatelli riding his Yamaha superbly) appeared on the final straight. (Kawasaki's miserable weekend was due to more than the Duc domination, but that's another story.) In addition, the Ducati is now sporting 6" long wings on its fairing, as some of their Moto-GP tech gets sent downstream. Makes sense- you can't use that big power advantage if the bike is trying to wheelie all the time.
Meanwhile, the Kawi, Yamaha and Honda are now looking pretty equal. But this is starting to look like the 1990's, when Ducati's huge rules advantage let them own the sport for most of the decade. Only when Honda gave up trying to beat 1000cc twins with a 750 four, and took two titles with the RC51, did Dorna finally level the displacement playing field. But I guess they got sick of Ducati not winning again, so here we are once more with rules that favor the Italian marque, and a bike that has been clearly faster for the past several years. However, I think and hope they will only let this period of Duc domination continue for another year or two, and then the power levels might get equalized again. We will see.
Of more concern to me is the worry that the Superbike product marketplace has shriveled up so much that only Ducati will be motivated to keep advancing the technology (and cost) of their Superbike, as the others might decide it is just not worth it. If the endgame of WSBK is selling bikes, and the sportbike market is disappearing, how do the makers justify the cost to shareholders? The scenario that may develop might look even more like GP racing in the 1960's than WSBK racing in the 1990's...
Back in the 1960's, there was only one bike manufacturer that was serious about road racing, MV Augusta. They hired the best rider they could find in Agostini, and together they won 15 world championships. They won so often and so easily- sometimes by several MINUTES- that Ago some seasons would not even attend the last races of the year, having sewed up the title with room to spare. (And given how dangerous the tracks were, who could blame him for not racing if he did not have to?)
So I ask myself, are Honda and Kawi and Yamaha going to build new-generation Superbikes, with a V-4 and downforce aero, if that is what is needed to match the Ducati? All to try to capture sales that are not there? If not, the gap between the desmo's and the rest will continue to widen and Ducati will continue to win WSBK titles by default, just as MV did all those years ago. And I think that is kind of likely- especially if the other makers conclude that even if they put in the resources, Dorna will keep tilting the rules to favor one firm.
I have a similar worry for MotoGP. There, Ducati has earned their leadership position by spending tons on R&D, fielding eight bikes, and leading the MC world in using AI and F-1 style aerodynamics. Will the others make the same committment to catch up? Or was Suzuki just the first firm to throw in the towel? I hope not, but time will tell.
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